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IJCRR - 5(22), November, 2013

Pages: 6-26

Date of Publication: 04-Dec-2013


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FISCAL DEFICIT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE GAMBIA

Author: Emmanuel Ating Onwioduokit, Godwin E. Bassey

Category: General Sciences

Abstract:The key objective of this paper is to empirically ascertain whether fiscal deficit enhance or retard economic growth in the Gambia between the period 1980 and 2009. The empirical results obtained from the estimation exercise are fairly robust and satisfactory, in that the variables conformed largely to a priori expectation in terms of statistical significance. The empirical results show that fiscal deficit affects the real economic growth positively and significantly with a lag of one year. The sign of the parameter estimate conforms to the presumptive expectation, given that the fiscal deficit in the Gambia was essentially used in financing economic and social infrastructure during the study period. Thus the results support the Keynesian assertion that fiscal deficits have positive impacts on economic growth.

Keywords: Fiscal Deficit, Economic Growth, The Gambia

Full Text:

INTRODUCTION
The impact of fiscal deficits on economic output has been the subject of extensive research over the past eight decades. The debate on the issue is far from settled.  However three unique views on the debate can be gleaned from the literature. The Keynesians unequivocally advocate fiscal deficit spending by government believing that it has positive effect on economic growth, while the neoclassical argue that fiscal deficit is detrimental to economic growth. The Ricardian however, view the impact of deficits financing as being neutral to economic growth in the long run.

The conventional wisdom that deficit is bad for growth is based on the neoclassical theory of output and employment, which has two variants. The extreme version assumes the economy to be continuously at the level of output corresponding to full employment. An increase in government spending financed by borrowing leads to a rise in interest rates; higher interest rates lower private investment, thereby lowering output growth. The moderate version of the neoclassical theory (Blinder and Solow 1973) allows that unemployment may exist in the short run so that fiscal policy, specifically budget deficits, may have a positive impact on output. An increase in government expenditure, or a decrease in the tax rate, stimulates spending, output, and employment. However, once full employment has been achieved, the impact of continued government deficit spending becomes inflationary.

From a policy perspective, both variants of neoclassical theory imply that higher investment, output, and employment and lower interest rates and prices over the long run can be obtained only by lowering the budget deficit. The carefully orchestrated fiscal austerity as the principal means to increase long-run economic growth, by the authorities of diverse political persuasions, is rooted in this fundamental theoretical perspective. Yet, empirical reality has not substantiated the neoclassical perspective. Numerous studies including (Taylor 1985) have shown that the effect of budget deficits on growth is ambiguous: deficits can lower or raise output growth.

What is not in dispute however, is the fact that the quality and direction of expenditure that the government applies the deficit substantially determine the outcome of fiscal deficit on economic growth. Government spending can be divided into two categories: consumption spending (expenditure on goods and services) and public investment spending (expenditures on infrastructure, education, public health, research and development, and other expenditure that are conducive to raising business productivity). A number of empirical studies including Onwioduokit (2005) have found that a rise in public investment significantly reduces business costs and improves business profitability, thereby raising the long-run growth rate of the economy. Thus as a rule, where deficits are applied in a growth enhancing sectors including investment in infrastructure, the outcome has been found to be positive, while where deficits are deployed in supporting consumption, the impact on growth has been found to be negative. The other sticking point in the debate is the need to carry out case by case study on the deficit- growth nexus.

Taylor (1985) presented a classical growth cycles (CGC) model to demonstrate that the impact of budget deficits is far more complex than is generally predicted. The CGC model starts with the assumption that growth in output and employment is a persistent feature of the economy, in the short run and the long run. It assumes that investment decisions, rooted in profitability considerations and carried out in an uncertain world, are responsible for growth. This view contrasts with the standard view that growth is a long-run phenomenon resulting from exogenous changes in population and technology. Further, in a fundamentally uncertain world, there is no inherent reason why planned investment spending should match available savings and the mismatch is reflected in the demand for bank credit. Hence, the money supply is not under the total control of the central bank. If banks' profit expectations are the same as those of firms, banks will automatically extend to firms the credit they need, and the money supply will expand endogenously. The model also assumes that unemployment and excess capacity are recurrent features of the economy over the course of business cycles; however, structural unemployment (reflected in the relatively low employment rates of certain strata of the population) persists over the long run when productive capacity is utilized at the normal level. Finally, the model embedded a social accounting matrix with fully articulated stocks and flows.

Barro (1989) contended that the Ricardian results depended on “full employment”, which definitely does not hold in Keynesian models. In a model Keynesian investigation, if every person thinks that a fiscal deficit makes them richer, the resulting increase of aggregate demand increases output and employment and in so doing essentially makes people better off. This outcome is valid if the economy commences in a state of “involuntary unemployment”. There could even be several rational expectations equilibria, where the adjustment in actual wealth equals the change in perceived wealth. This outcome does not necessarily signify that fiscal deficits boost aggregate demand and wealth in Keynesian models. He further opined that if fiscal deficits made people feel poorer, the resulting contractions in output and employment would have made them poorer. Similarly, if we had started with the Ricardian notion that fiscal deficits did not affect wealth, the Keynesian results would have verified that speculation. The peculiar feature of the standard Keynesian model is that anything that makes people feel richer actually makes them better off, notwithstanding that perception and reality might not correspond one on one. This remark raises uncertainties about the formulation of Keynesian models, but says little about the effects of fiscal deficits.

Ball, et al. (1995) in their contribution maintained that in the long run an economy’s output is determined by its productive capacity, which is 

fundamentally determined by its stock of capital. When deficits shrink investment the capital stock grows more slowly than it otherwise would. Over a year, or two, this crowding out of investment has a negligible effect on the capital stock. But if deficits persist for a decade or more, they can significantly decrease the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services. Furthermore, fiscal deficits by reducing national saving must reduce either investment or net exports. As a result, they must lead to some combination of a lesser capital stock and greater foreign ownership of domestic assets. If fiscal deficits crowd out capital, national income falls because a smaller fraction is produced; if fiscal deficits lead to trade deficits, just as much is produced, but less of the income from production accrues to domestic residents.

Taking the matter a step further, Devereux and Love (1995) investigated the impact of government deficit spending in a two-sector endogenous growth model developed by King and Rebelo (1990), they extended the model to accommodate an endogenous consumption leisure decision. The authors concluded that there is a positive relationship between lump sum financed government deficit spending and growth rates. They explained that, as in many “endogenous growth” models, the rate of growth are positively related to the rate of return on human and physical capital accumulation. The return on human capital accumulation is higher the greater the fraction of time spent working, in either sector. A higher rate of government deficit spending generates negative wealth effects, leading to a reduction in leisure and a rise in hours worked. Consequently, the rate of growth rises. Although government spending raises the long-run growth rate; it reduces welfare since government deficit spending is a less than perfect substitute for private spending.

Similarly, Yavas (1998) showed that an increase in size of fiscal deficit will increase the steady-state level of output if the economy is at low steady-state (i.e. underdeveloped), and will decrease the steady-state level of output if the economy is at a high steady-state (i.e., developed). He argued that in the underdeveloped countries a significant portion of the deficits is directed to the building of the infrastructure of the economy and this type of expenditure will have a stimulating effect on private sector production. In contrast, the developed countries already have most of their infrastructure built and a major part of their deficit spending is on welfare programmes and various social services. Accordingly, the positive effect of spending on these programmes on private output will not be as great as that of expenditures on infrastructure.

Ahmed and Miller (2000) examined the effects of disaggregated government expenditure on investment using fixed- and random-effect methods. Using the government budget constraint, they investigated the effects of tax- and debt-financed expenditure for the full sample, and for sub-samples of developed and developing countries. The authors reported that, tax-financed government expenditure crowds out more investment than debt financed expenditure. Expenditure on social security and welfare reduces investment in all samples while expenditure on transport and communication induces private investment in developing countries.

Heitger (2001) viewed increases in size of government deficit arising from increased consumption as constraints on growth, while increases in size that arise from government investment should be positive in their effect on growth. His central hypothesis is that government expenditures on core public goods including the rule of law, internal and external security have a positive impact on economic growth, but this positive impact of government tends to decline or even reverse if government further increases expenditures in a way that it also provides private goods. The author stressed that two important reasons for a negative impact of excessive government spending on economic growth are the fact that the necessary taxes reduce the incentives to work, to invest and to innovate, and the fact that 

 

government crowds out more efficient private suppliers.

Empirical findings on the relationship between fiscal deficits and economic growth have been uneven. Guess and Koford (1984) used the Granger causality test to find the causal relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation, gross national product, and private investment using annual data for seventeen OECD countries for the period 1949 to 1981. They concluded that fiscal deficits do not cause changes in these variables. Kormendi and Meguire (1985) conducted a cross-sectional study across forty-seven countries investigating the effects of monetary variance, risk, government spending, inflation and trade openness on growth. Specifically, with respect to government deficit spending, they found that the mean growth rate of the ratio of government deficit spending to output has a positive effect on GDP growth

Grier and Tullock (1989) repeated the work of Kormendi and Meguire (1985) on a larger sample of one hundred and thirteen (133) countries from which they constructed a pooled cross-section/time series data set. They tested for regularities in the data rather than robustness. They found that both the inflation rate and government deficit spending as a proportion of GDP were negatively related to growth. On the larger data set they found, contrary to Kormendi and Meguire, that the mean growth rate of the ratio of government deficit spending to output had a negative and significant impact on GDP growth.

Barro (1991) examined ninety eight (98) countries during the period 1960—1985 and reported a negative relationship between the output growth rate and the share of government consumption expenditures. He noted that growth rates are positively related to measures of political stability and inversely related to a proxy for market distortions. He found measures of political instability inversely related to growth and investment. He further averred that the first source of economic growth, human capital, can be measured in terms of education level and health. He concluded that the growth rate of real per capita GDP is positively related to initial human capital (proxied by 1960 school-enrolment rates).  He explained that theories in which the initial values of human capital and per capita GDP matter for subsequent growth rates also suggest relations with physical investment and fertility. The author also suggested that countries with higher human capital also have lower fertility rates and higher ratios of investment to GDP. He noted that in endogenous growth models of Rebelo (1990) and Barro (1990), per capita growth and the investment ratio tend to move together. He stated that growth is inversely related to the share of government consumption in GDP, but insignificantly related to the share of public investment. Finally he submitted that when the share of public investment was considered; he found a positive but statistically insignificant relationship between public investment and the growth rate.

Easterly et al (1992) reported a consistent negative relationship between growth and fiscal deficits. Fischer (1993) supported Easterly et al. (1992) findings when they noted that large fiscal deficits and growth are negatively related. Among other variables such as inflation and distorted foreign exchange markets, he emphasized the importance of a stable and sustainable fiscal policy, to achieve a stable macroeconomic framework.

Easterly and Schmidt-Hebbel (1994) in their contribution to the debate attempted a comprehensive enquiry into the direct and indirect effects of deficits on macroeconomic variables for selected developing countries. An extensive discussion was undertaken on the measurement issues of fiscal deficits. The authors recognised a number of measurements of fiscal deficits which further confirmed the findings of researches on the subject. Series of techniques including correlation, percentages, frequency tables, regression analysis were explored. The graphics used gave deep insight into the trend and composition of deficits.

 

The authors principally argued that for efficient public investment, particularly in social or physical infrastructure and increased revenue generation through taxes, as this would encourage economic growth. The analysis also demonstrated that fiscal adjustments were important for improved economic performance. They concluded that the relationship between fiscal deficits and macroeconomic variables is complex and differs from country to country. In addition, the means of financing deficits contributed significantly to the impact of the deficits on the domestic economy. 

Al-Khedair (1996) studied the relationship between the budget deficit and economic growth in the seven major industrial countries (G-7). The data utilized covered the period 1964 to 1993. The variable included in model were, budget deficit, the money supply, nominal exchange rate, and foreign direct investment. He found that the budget deficit has a significant positive impact on economic growth in France, Germany, and Italy. Overall results concluded that the budget deficit seems to positively and significantly affect economic growth in all the seven major industrial countries.

Kelly (1997) investigated the effects of public expenditure on economic growth among seventy three (73) nations (including developing and developed nations) over the period 1970- 89. This study used OLS to estimate economic growth as a function of various public expenditures including social expenditure, educational expenditure and other expenditures, and certain variables, which have been prominent in the empirical growth literature such as private investment, and the trade openness variable. The study found that public investment, and particularly housing expenditure, registered a uniformly positive and frequently significant relationship with growth. Although the results did not support a robust relationship between public investment and growth, it nevertheless conflicted with the crowding out thesis that dominated the theoretical literature. Social security expenditures were positively related to growth in each specification of the model and significantly so in several versions. The results are important because they suggested that nations may pursue social welfare and growth simultaneously. The results indicated that health expenditures were negatively and sometimes significantly related to growth, while those for education vary in sign and significance.

Jenkins (1997) motivated by the persistent deficits in Zimbabwe, examined public sector deficits and macroeconomic stability in Zimbabwe. The author identified an intense debt problem, drought and terms of trade shocks coupled with the government’s unwillingness to engage in fiscal adjustment as fundamental macroeconomic setbacks in Zimbabwe. Findings of the study showed that uncertainty caused by the growing public-sector debt reduced private investment and further resulted in a decline in growth. The macroeconomic model explored by the researcher showed that the variable with greatest influence on overall growth was agricultural output. However, the budget deficit had an unambiguously negative impact on exports. It also reduced private welfare, worsened income distribution and reduced employment. The author concluded that the growth of government resulted in a drain on the economy, rather than facilitate economic growth and development.   

Phillips (1997) critically analyzed the Nigerian fiscal policy between 1960 and 1997 with a view to identifying workable ways for the effective implementation of Vision 2010. He observed that fiscal deficits have been an abiding feature in Nigeria for decades. He noted that with the exception of the period 1971 to 1974, and 1979, there has been an overall deficit in the federal Government budgets each year since 1960. The chronic fiscal deficits and their financing largely by borrowing, he asserted, resulted in excessive money supply, worsened inflationary pressures, and complicated macroeconomic instability, resulting in negative impact on external balance, investment, employment and growth.  He 

contended however that fiscal policy could be an effective tool for moving Nigeria towards the desired state in 2010 only if it is substantially cured of the chronic budget deficit syndrome it has suffered for decades.

Anyanwu (1998) deviated markedly from past studies that focused more on the effects of deficits and concentrated on the impact of deficits financing. He applied regression analysis to pooled cross-section and time series data for Nigeria, Ghana and the Gambia. The results did not reveal a significant positive association between overall fiscal deficits (and its foreign financing) and domestic nominal deposit interest rates. However, the author reported a significant positive relationship between domestic financing of the fiscal deficits and domestic nominal deposit rates. He concluded that the concern of economists in the Sub-region should shift from the deficits itself to the manner of financing the deficit.

Mugume and Obwona (1998), concerned about the role of fiscal deficits in the reform programme in Uganda, investigated public sector deficits and macroeconomic performance in Uganda. The study set out to provide a more systematic modelling framework to explain the interrelationships between fiscal deficits, current account deficits and real exchange rate depreciation. Another focus of the research was to analyse the behaviour of important aggregate variables such as price level, current account balance, external sector and money stock as influenced directly and indirectly by changes in fiscal deficits. A small macroeconomic model that captured the interactions between exports, import, real exchange rate, government expenditure, price, and money supply was specified. The empirical strategy attempted to build an integrated model linking the public sector with the financial market and then generate implications for the conduct of fiscal policy. A distinct finding of the estimations was the observed interaction of the public sector and monetary sector.

Adenikinju and Olofin (2000) focused on the role of economic policy in the growth performance of the manufacturing sectors in African countries. They utilized panel data for seventeen African countries over the period 1976 to 1993. Their econometric evidence indicated that government policies aimed at encouraging foreign direct investment, enhancing the external competitiveness of the economy, and maintaining macroeconomic balance have significant effects on manufacturing growth performance in Africa.

Prunera (2000) showed a possible mechanism through which deficit may hinder human capital accumulation and therefore economic growth. Taking deficit as an indicator for the presence of disequilibrium and inefficiencies in a country, the author highlighted deficit as a factor that could be reducing the effectiveness of time devoted to education and training. Following a simple growth model and allowing for slight changes in the law of human capital accumulation, the author noted that deficit might sharply reduce human capital accumulation. On the other hand, a deficit reduction carried on for a long time, taking that reduction as a more efficient management of the economy, may prove useful in inducing endogenous growth. He submitted that empirical evidence for a sample of countries seems to support the theoretical assumptions of an inverse relationship between deficit and human capital accumulation as well as the presence of a strongly negative association between the quantity of deficit in the economy and the rate of growth. However, the author averred that there was a certain role for budget deficit in economic growth.

Ahmed and Miller (2000) examined the effects of disaggregated government expenditure on investment using OLS, fixed-effect, and random effect methods. Their empirical results produced several conclusions. First, the openness variable has a significantly positive effect on investment only for developing countries. For developed countries, openness does not significantly affect investment. Second, expenditure on transportation 

and communication, crowds in investment for developing countries only. Third, tax financed government expenditure, in general, crowds out investment more frequently that debt-financed government expenditure. That finding may suggest the existence of liquidity constraints within the economy. Finally, expenditure on social security and welfare crowds out investment for both tax and debt-financed increases and in both developing and developed countries. This is the only category of government expenditure that had such a consistent (negative) effect across all specifications.

In recent times as the debate on fiscal deficits and growth progressed, more elegant models and empirical strategies have been explored in the analysis of the subject. Prominent among these include, Adams and Bevan (2002), Korsu (2009) and Keho (2010). Their findings are divergent.

Adams and Bevan (2002) assessed the relationship between fiscal deficits and growth in a panel of forty five (45) developing countries. An overlapping generation’s model in the tradition of Diamond (1965) that incorporated high-powered money in addition to debt and taxes was specified. The estimation strategy involved a standard fixed effect panel data estimation and bi-variate linear regression of growth on the fiscal deficits using pooled data. An important contribution of the empirical analysis was the existence of a statistically significant non-linearity in the impact of budget deficit on growth. However, this non-linearity the authors argued reflected the underlying composition of deficit financing. In effect, Adams and Bevan posited that for a given level of government spending, a shift from a balanced budget to a (small) deficit may temporarily reduce distortions especially if the distortions impact growth rather than output. Based on a consistent treatment of the government budget, the authors found evidence of a threshold effect at a level of the deficit around 1.5 percent of GDP. While there appeared to be a growth payoff to reducing deficits to level, this effect disappeared or reversed itself for further fiscal contraction. The magnitude of this payoff, but not its general character, necessarily depended on how changes in the deficit were financed (through changes in borrowing or seigniorage) and on how the change in the deficit was accommodated elsewhere in the budget. The authors also found evidence of the interactive effects between deficits and debt stock, with high debt stocks exacerbating the adverse consequences of high deficits.

Korsu (2009)’s finding supported the arguments of Jenkins (1997) and  Mugume and Obwona (1998) who worked on Zimbabwe and Uganda, respectively. They argued that fiscal deficits were inimical to macroeconomic performance as a whole and advocated for fiscal restraint as a pathway to improving other sectors of the economy and welfare. Korsu (2009)’s work recognised economic growth, low and stable prices and healthy external balance as the macroeconomic policy objectives of the economy of Sierra Leone. These he argued have been hampered by the persistence of fiscal deficits following some background analysis and historical records. To provide empirical support to the background information, aggregate annual data for the period 1971 to 2005 were used in an econometric estimation. Predicated on an open economy model, equations for money supply, price level, real exchange rate and the overall balance of payments were specified. The empirical models were estimated using a 3-stage least square estimation technique. The estimated results showed that fiscal restraint improved the external sector of Sierra Leone by reducing money supply and the price level. The important contribution of Korsu’s paper rested on the simulation experiments which differed from previous studies reviewed. The results pointed to the need for fiscal restraint and improved revenue generation to meet the expenditure requirements of the government.

In his contribution to the debate, Keho (2010) investigated the causal relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in seven 

member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). One specific objective was pursued which was to examine if fiscal deficits were really bad for economic growth in all countries of the WAEMU. The study employed the granger causality test developed by Toda and Yamatoto (1995). Annual time series data on real GDP growth, ratio of gross fixed capital formation and public deficit or surplus as a percentage of GDP were used. Unlike most empirical works on granger causality tests, the empirical analysis was undertaken in a multivariate form using gross fixed capital formation as a control variable. This mediating variable related meaningfully to economic growth in traditional growth models and mitigated the possibility of distorting the causality inferences due to omission of relevant variables. A striking feature of the descriptive statistics of the variables was that low levels of economic growth were associated with persistent fiscal deficits. In addition, the correlation coefficients showed that deficit and economic growth were positively related. The empirical results were mixed across countries. In three cases the author found no causality evidence between fiscal deficits and growth. Findings also indicated a two-way causality in three countries, deficits having adverse effects on growth. Overall the author argued that the results gave support to the WAEMU budgetary rule aimed at restricting the size of fiscal deficits as a prerequisite for sustainable growth and real convergence.

It can be concluded from the theoretical and empirical studies presented in this section that there are some similarities and differences between these studies dealing with the impact of public investment on private investment and economic growth. The key objective of this paper is to empirically ascertain whether fiscal deficit enhance or retard economic growth in the Gambia between the period 1980 and 2009. The outcome of this study is expected to contribute to the unfolding literature on the subject while serving as a guide for policy makers in the Gambia.

Stylised Facts on Fiscal Deficits, Inflation and Output in the Gambia
Domestic revenue/GDP ratio averaged 17.9 percent between 2001 and 2003. The ratio improved in the next four consecutive years (2004-2007) above 20.0 percent. The increase in revenue could principally be attributed to the commitment to fiscal transparency and accountability, and the response to the policy measures. However, between 2008 and 2010, the ratio fell marginally to an average of 18.3 percent, on account of a drop in tax revenue. While non tax revenue as a percentage of GDP increased from 1.8 percent in 2008 to 1.9 percent in 2010 this was inadequate to counterbalance the slight decline in tax revenue. Grants as a percent of GDP in 2009 registered a strong growth of 5.1 percent from a paltry 0.9 percent in 2008.  This surge in grants (26 percent of total revenue) was principally due to increases in project disbursement and programme grants.  Thus, total revenues (including grants) improved from 20.6 percent in 2008 to 24.6 percent in 2010.

With regards to the expenditure, total expenditure and net lending averaged 25.0 percent between 2000 and 2002.The average ratio increased to 26.1 between 2003 and 2006. In 2007 and 2008, respective ratios of 22.8 and 23.0 were registered. However considerable improvement to 27.8 percent was achieved in 2010. The quicker pace of growth stemmed mainly from increased capital spending. Within this total, there had been a shift from recurrent to capital expenditure, with the latter growing by 33.9 percent in 2010 from 24.2 percent in 2008.  As can be gleaned from Figure 1, the relationship between the three variables fiscal deficit, real GDP growth and inflation exhibited a mixed trend.

Given the more rapid growth rate of spending relative to revenue, the overall budget balance (excluding grants) worsened from a deficit of 3.3 percent of GDP in 2008 to 8.6 and 8.5 percent in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The deficit was financed from both external and domestic sources. Domestic debt as a ratio of GDP increased significantly by 26.1 percent in 2008 to 34.6 percent in 2010 as a result of Treasury Bills issued.  The share of treasury bills to domestic debt widened from 79.7 percent in 2008 to 84.4 percent in 2010.

Inflation which was in double digits in 2002 and 2003 decelerated gradually over the review period to 2.7 percent in 2009 but nudged up to 5.8 percent in 2010.  This was completely attributable to good harvest reinforced with a tight monetary policy stance of the Central Bank. A critical analysis of the inflation determinant (food and non-food), indicates that between 2000 and 2009, food inflation had always accounted for higher percentage contribution to CPI basket compared to non-food inflation, indicating that inflation in the Gambia could be dominated by high import content of food in the food basket.

In the last ten years (2001-2010) economic growth in the Gambia has been strong. Beginning from 2001, the real GDP growth rate had been constantly over 5.0 percent but for 2002, when a paltry 1.3 percent growth rate was achieved.  The impressive growth experienced by the country was attributable to capital inflows, robust performance in tourism, telecommunication and construction.

Arising from the global economic slowdown which started in late 2007, that resulted in a decline in tourism, and in manufacturing production as well as wholesale and retail trade, the tempo of real GDP growth moderated to 5.6 and 5.0 percent in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The agricultural sector registered a growth rate of 5.5 percent compared to 3.6 percent in 2008, largely as a result of clement weather condition particularly, rains. The share of the service sector in GDP ranged between 54.6 percent in 2000 to 61.5 percent in 2009, fuelled by amplified activity in the construction, transportation and communications.  The tourism sector was hard hit as the number of tourists’ arrival in 2009 declined by 17.3 percent relative to 2008.  Activities in the industrial sector were equally sluggish in 2010 and the share of industry to GDP whittled down to 3.5 percent from 3.8 percent in 2008.

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The analytical framework adopted for this study follows essentially the Keynesian framework.  It would be recalled that in a simple Keynesian framework, desired aggregate demand relationship is specified in the goods market as:

                           

Where Y is output; C, consumption; I, investment; G, government spending which is assumed to be exogenous; X, exports; M, imports; Yd, disposable income; T, tax revenue; i, interest rate; e, exchange rate.

In equilibrium (after substituting behavioural equations into the desired aggregate demand equation (1)), output will be given by

From equation (2), increasing taxes will reduce output, while increasing government spending will increase output.

But fiscal deficit (FD) is given by

Fiscal deficit is the excess of government expenditure over its revenue. Assuming that the government derives its total revenue from tax sources (which is quite realistic), G-T gives the deficit position of the government. Since individuals do not spend all their income, the total revenue that could be generated from consumption expenditure is . Thus, subtracting this from government expenditure will give approximate position of the fiscal balance.

Putting (3) into (2) gives

Given that the countries in the WAMZ are essentially small-open economies (without ability to influence international price developments) and for holistic treatment of the economy, the model is extended to incorporate the money sector as well as the external sector. The money market in an open economy can be represented by the following equations:

 

Equilibrium Condition:                                                                (7)

Where is the general price level,  international reserves held by the central bank and  are coefficients.

From the above money market model, the LM schedule1 can be specified as

LM Schedule:                                

Given the importance of the external sector in the countries of study, the influence of the sector is incorporated through the balance of payments schedule. The balance of payments schedule is given as

BP Schedule:

Where A2is the aggregate of exogenous components in the net export function and are coefficients.  Putting equation (8) into (4) gives

Putting equation (9) into (10) produces

Isolating like terms and re-arranging equation (11) gives

Recasting the second term on the right-hand side of equation (12) in logarithmic generic term gives

where the rate of inflation and . 

In equation (12B), equilibrium output is positively related to fiscal deficit.

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29. Tao H, Bausch C, Richmond C, Blattner FR, Conway T. Functional genomics: expression analysis of Escherichia coli growing on minimal and rich media. Journal of Bacteriology 1999 181: 6425 - 6440.

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Announcements

Dr. Pramod Kumar Manjhi joined Editor-in-Chief since July 2021 onwards

COPE guidelines for Reviewers

SCOPUS indexing: 2014, 2019 to 2021


Awards, Research and Publication incentive Schemes by IJCRR

Best Article Award: 

One article from every issue is selected for the ‘Best Article Award’. Authors of selected ‘Best Article’ are rewarded with a certificate. IJCRR Editorial Board members select one ‘Best Article’ from the published issue based on originality, novelty, social usefulness of the work. The corresponding author of selected ‘Best Article Award’ is communicated and information of award is displayed on IJCRR’s website. Drop a mail to editor@ijcrr.com for more details.

Women Researcher Award:

This award is instituted to encourage women researchers to publish her work in IJCRR. Women researcher, who intends to publish her research work in IJCRR as the first author is eligible to apply for this award. Editorial Board members decide on the selection of women researchers based on the originality, novelty, and social contribution of the research work. The corresponding author of the selected manuscript is communicated and information is displayed on IJCRR’s website. Under this award selected women, the author is eligible for publication incentives. Drop a mail to editor@ijcrr.com for more details.

Emerging Researcher Award:

‘Emerging Researcher Award’ is instituted to encourage student researchers to publish their work in IJCRR. Student researchers, who intend to publish their research or review work in IJCRR as the first author are eligible to apply for this award. Editorial Board members decide on the selection of student researchers for the said award based on originality, novelty, and social applicability of the research work. Under this award selected student researcher is eligible for publication incentives. Drop a mail to editor@ijcrr.com for more details.


Best Article Award

A study by Dorothy Ebere Adimora et al. entitled \"Remediation for Effects of Domestic Violence on Psychological well-being, Depression and Suicide among Women During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross-cultural Study of Nigeria and Spain\" is awarded Best Article of Vol 14 issue 23
A study by Muhas C. et al. entitled \"Study on Knowledge & Awareness About Pharmacovigilance Among Pharmacists in South India\" is awarded Best article for Vol 14 issue 22
A study by Saurabh Suvidha entitled \"A Case of Mucoid Degeneration of Uterine Fibroid with Hydrosalphinx and Ovarian Cyst\" is awarded Best article of Vol 14 issue 21
A study by Alice Alice entitled \"Strengthening of Human Milk Banking across South Asian Countries: A Next Step Forward\" is awarded Best article of Vol 14 issue 20
A study by Sathyanarayanan AR et al. entitled \"The on-task Attention of Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder-An Eye Tracker Study Using Auticare\" is awarded Best article of Vol 14 issue 19
A study by Gupta P. et al. entitled \"A Short Review on \"A Novel Approach in Fast Dissolving Film & their Evaluation Studies\" is awarded Best Article of Vol 14 issue 18.
A study by Shafaque M. et al. entitled \"A Case-Control Study Performed in Karachi on Inflammatory Markers by Ciprofloxacin and CoAmoxicillin in Patients with Chronic Suppurative Otitis Media\" is awarded Best Article of Vol 14 issue 17
A study by Ali Nawaz et al. entitled \"A Comparative Study of Tubeless versus Standard Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy (PCNL) \? A Randomized Controlled Study\" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 16.
A study by Singh R. et al. entitled \"A Prospective Study to Find the Association of Astigmatism in Patients of Vernal Keratoconjunctivitis (VKC) in a Tertiary Health Care Centre in India (Vindhya Region MP)\" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 15
A Study by Humaira Tahir et al. entitled "Comparison of First Analgesic Demand after Major Surgeries of Obstetrics and Gynecology between Pre-Emptive Versus Intra-Operative Groups by Using Intravenous Paracetamol: A Cross-Sectional Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 14
A Study by Monica K. entitled "Risk Predictors for Lymphoma Development in Sjogren Syndrome - A Systematic Review" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 13
A Study by Mokhtar M Sh et al. entitled "Prevalence of Hospital Mortality of Critically Ill Elderly Patients" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 12
A Study by Vidya S. Bhat et al. entitled "Effect of an Indigenous Cleanser on the Microbial Biofilm on Acrylic Denture Base - A Pilot Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 11
A Study by Pandya S. et al. entitled "Acute and 28-Day Repeated Dose Subacute Toxicological Evaluation of Coroprotect Tablet in Rodents" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 10
A Study by Muhammad Zaki et al. entitled "Effect of Hemoglobin Level on the Severity of Acute Bronchiolitis in Children: A Case-Control Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 09
A Study by Vinita S & Ayushi S entitled "Role of Colour Doppler and Transvaginal Sonography for diagnosis of endometrial pathology in women presenting with Abnormal Uterine Bleeding" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 08
A Study by Prabhu A et al. entitled "Awareness of Common Eye Conditions among the ASHA (Accredited Social Health Activist) Workers in the Rural Communities of Udupi District- A Pilot Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 07
A Study by Divya MP et al. entitled "Non-Echoplanar Diffusion-Weighted Imaging and 3D Fiesta Magnetic Resonance Imaging Sequences with High Resolution Computed Tomography Temporal Bone in Assessment and Predicting the Outcome of Chronic Suppurative Otitis Media with Cholesteatoma" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 06
A Study by Zahoor Illahi Soomro et al. entitled "Functional Outcomes of Fracture Distal Radius after Fixation with Two Different Plates: A Retrospective Comparative Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 05
A Study by Ajai KG & Athira KN entitled "Patients’ Gratification Towards Service Delivery Among Government Hospitals with Particular Orientation Towards Primary Health Centres" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 04
A Study by Mbungu Mulaila AP et al. entitled "Ovarian Pregnancy in Kindu City, D.R. Congo - A Case Report" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 03
A Study by Maryam MJ et al. entitled "Evaluation Serum Chemerin and Visfatin Levels with Rheumatoid Arthritis: Possible Diagnostic Biomarkers" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 02
A Study by Shanthan KR et al. entitled "Comparison of Ultrasound Guided Versus Nerve Stimulator Guided Technique of Supraclavicular Brachial Plexus Block in Patients Undergoing Upper Limb Surgeries" is awarded Best Article for Vol 14 issue 01
A Study by Amol Sanap et al. entitled "The Outcome of Coxofemoral Bypass Using Cemented Bipolar Hemiarthroplasty in the Treatment of Unstable Intertrochanteric Fracture of Femur in a Rural Setup" is awarded Best Article Award of Vol 13 issue 24
A Study by Manoj KP et al. entitled "A Randomized Comparative Clinical Trial to Know the Efficacy of Ultrasound-Guided Transversus Abdominis Plane Block Against Multimodal Analgesia for Postoperative Analgesia Following Caesarean Section" is awarded Best Article Award of Vol 13 issue 23
A Study by Karimova II et al. entitled "Changes in the Activity of Intestinal Carbohydrases in Alloxan-Induced Diabetic Rats and Their Correction with Prenalon" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 22
A Study by Ashish B Roge et al. entitled "Development, Validation of RP-HPLC Method and GC MS Analysis of Desloratadine HCL and It’s Degradation Products" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 21
A Study by Isha Gaurav et al. entitled "Association of ABO Blood Group with Oral Cancer and Precancer – A Case-control Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 20
A Study by Amr Y. Zakaria et al. entitled "Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms of ATP-Binding Cassette Gene(ABCC3 rs4793665) affect High Dose Methotrexate-Induced Nephrotoxicity in Children with Osteosarcoma" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 19
A Study by Kholis Ernawati et al. entitled "The Utilization of Mobile-Based Information Technology in the Management of Dengue Fever in the Community Year 2019-2020: Systematic Review" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 18
A Study by Bhat Asifa et al. entitled "Efficacy of Modified Carbapenem Inactivation Method for Carbapenemase Detection and Comparative Evaluation with Polymerase Chain Reaction for the Identification of Carbapenemase Producing Klebsiella pneumonia Isolates" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 17
A Study by Gupta R. et al. entitled "A Clinical Study of Paediatric Tracheostomy: Our Experience in a Tertiary Care Hospital in North India" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 16
A Study by Chandran Anand et al. entitled "A Prospective Study on Assessment of Quality of Life of Patients Receiving Sorafenib for Hepatocellular Carcinoma" is awarded Best article for Vol 13 issue 15
A Study by Rosa PS et al. entitled "Emotional State Due to the Covid – 19 Pandemic in People Residing in a Vulnerable Area in North Lima" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 14
A Study by Suvarna Sunder J et al. entitled "Endodontic Revascularization of Necrotic Permanent Anterior Tooth with Platelet Rich Fibrin, Platelet Rich Plasma, and Blood Clot - A Comparative Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 13
A Study by Mona Isam Eldin Osman et al. entitled "Psychological Impact and Risk Factors of Sexual Abuse on Sudanese Children in Khartoum State" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 12
A Study by Khaw Ming Sheng & Sathiapriya Ramiah entitled "Web Based Suicide Prevention Application for Patients Suffering from Depression" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 11
A Study by Purushottam S. G. et al. entitled "Development of Fenofibrate Solid Dispersions for the Plausible Aqueous Solubility Augmentation of this BCS Class-II Drug" is awarded Best article for Vol 13 issue 10
A Study by Kumar S. et al. entitled "A Study on Clinical Spectrum, Laboratory Profile, Complications and Outcome of Pediatric Scrub Typhus Patients Admitted to an Intensive Care Unit from a Tertiary Care Hospital from Eastern India" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 09
A Study by Mardhiah Kamaruddin et al. entitled "The Pattern of Creatinine Clearance in Gestational and Chronic Hypertension Women from the Third Trimester to 12 Weeks Postpartum" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 08
A Study by Sarmila G. B. et al. entitled "Study to Compare the Efficacy of Orally Administered Melatonin and Clonidine for Attenuation of Hemodynamic Response During Laryngoscopy and Endotracheal Intubation in Gastrointestinal Surgeries" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 07
A Study by M. Muthu Uma Maheswari et al. entitled "A Study on C-reactive Protein and Liver Function Tests in Laboratory RT-PCR Positive Covid-19 Patients in a Tertiary Care Centre – A Retrospective Study" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 06 Special issue Modern approaches for diagnosis of COVID-19 and current status of awareness
A Study by Gainneos PD et al. entitled "A Comparative Evaluation of the Levels of Salivary IgA in HIV Affected Children and the Children of the General Population within the Age Group of 9 – 12 Years – A Cross-Sectional Study" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 05 Special issue on Recent Advances in Dentistry for better Oral Health
A Study by Alkhansa Mahmoud et al. entitled "mRNA Expression of Somatostatin Receptors (1-5) in MCF7 and MDA-MB231 Breast Cancer Cells" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 06
A Study by Chen YY and Ghazali SRB entitled "Lifetime Trauma, posttraumatic stress disorder Symptoms and Early Adolescence Risk Factors for Poor Physical Health Outcome Among Malaysian Adolescents" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 04 Special issue on Current Updates in Plant Biology to Medicine to Healthcare Awareness in Malaysia
A Study by Kumari PM et al. entitled "Study to Evaluate the Adverse Drug Reactions in a Tertiary Care Teaching Hospital in Tamilnadu - A Cross-Sectional Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 05
A Study by Anu et al. entitled "Effectiveness of Cytological Scoring Systems for Evaluation of Breast Lesion Cytology with its Histopathological Correlation" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 04
A Study by Sharipov R. Kh. et al. entitled "Interaction of Correction of Lipid Peroxidation Disorders with Oxibral" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 03
A Study by Tarek Elwakil et al. entitled "Led Light Photobiomodulation Effect on Wound Healing Combined with Phenytoin in Mice Model" is awarded Best Article of Vol 13 issue 02
A Study by Mohita Ray et al. entitled "Accuracy of Intra-Operative Frozen Section Consultation of Gastrointestinal Biopsy Samples in Correlation with the Final Histopathological Diagnosis" is awarded Best Article for Vol 13 issue 01
A Study by Badritdinova MN et al. entitled "Peculiarities of a Pain in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease in the Presence of Individual Combines of the Metabolic Syndrome" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 24
A Study by Sindhu Priya E S et al. entitled "Neuroprotective activity of Pyrazolone Derivatives Against Paraquat-induced Oxidative Stress and Locomotor Impairment in Drosophila melanogaster" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 23
A Study by Habiba Suhail et al. entitled "Effect of Majoon Murmakki in Dysmenorrhoea (Usre Tams): A Standard Controlled Clinical Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 22
A Study by Ghaffar UB et al. entitled "Correlation between Height and Foot Length in Saudi Population in Majmaah, Saudi Arabia" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 21
A Study by Siti Sarah Binti Maidin entitled "Sleep Well: Mobile Application to Address Sleeping Problems" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 20
A Study by Avijit Singh"Comparison of Post Operative Clinical Outcomes Between “Made in India” TTK Chitra Mechanical Heart Valve Versus St Jude Mechanical Heart Valve in Valve Replacement Surgery" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 19
A Study by Sonali Banerjee and Mary Mathews N. entitled "Exploring Quality of Life and Perceived Experiences Among Couples Undergoing Fertility Treatment in Western India: A Mixed Methodology" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 18
A Study by Jabbar Desai et al. entitled "Prevalence of Obstructive Airway Disease in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease and Hypertension" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 17
A Study by Juna Byun et al. entitled "Study on Difference in Coronavirus-19 Related Anxiety between Face-to-face and Non-face-to-face Classes among University Students in South Korea" is awarded Best Article for Vol 12 issue 16
A Study by Sudha Ramachandra & Vinay Chavan entitled "Enhanced-Hybrid-Age Layered Population Structure (E-Hybrid-ALPS): A Genetic Algorithm with Adaptive Crossover for Molecular Docking Studies of Drug Discovery Process" is awarded Best article for Vol 12 issue 15
A Study by Varsha M. Shindhe et al. entitled "A Study on Effect of Smokeless Tobacco on Pulmonary Function Tests in Class IV Workers of USM-KLE (Universiti Sains Malaysia-Karnataka Lingayat Education Society) International Medical Programme, Belagavi" is awarded Best article of Vol 12 issue 14, July 2020
A study by Amruta Choudhary et al. entitled "Family Planning Knowledge, Attitude and Practice Among Women of Reproductive Age from Rural Area of Central India" is awarded Best Article for special issue "Modern Therapeutics Applications"
A study by Raunak Das entitled "Study of Cardiovascular Dysfunctions in Interstitial Lung Diseas epatients by Correlating the Levels of Serum NT PRO BNP and Microalbuminuria (Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Dysfunction) with Echocardiographic, Bronchoscopic and HighResolution Computed Tomography Findings of These ILD Patients" is awarded Best Article of Vol 12 issue 13 
A Study by Kannamani Ramasamy et al. entitled "COVID-19 Situation at Chennai City – Forecasting for the Better Pandemic Management" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 12
A Study by Muhammet Lutfi SELCUK and Fatma entitled "Distinction of Gray and White Matter for Some Histological Staining Methods in New Zealand Rabbit's Brain" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 11
A Study by Anamul Haq et al. entitled "Etiology of Abnormal Uterine Bleeding in Adolescents – Emphasis Upon Polycystic Ovarian Syndrome" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 10
A Study by entitled "Estimation of Reference Interval of Serum Progesterone During Three Trimesters of Normal Pregnancy in a Tertiary Care Hospital of Kolkata" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 09
A Study by Ilona Gracie De Souza & Pavan Kumar G. entitled "Effect of Releasing Myofascial Chain in Patients with Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome - A Randomized Clinical Trial" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 08
A Study by Virendra Atam et. al. entitled "Clinical Profile and Short - Term Mortality Predictors in Acute Stroke with Emphasis on Stress Hyperglycemia and THRIVE Score : An Observational Study" is awarded best article for  Vol 12 issue 07
A Study by K. Krupashree et. al. entitled "Protective Effects of Picrorhizakurroa Against Fumonisin B1 Induced Hepatotoxicity in Mice" is awarded best article for issue Vol 10 issue 20
A study by Mithun K.P. et al "Larvicidal Activity of Crude Solanum Nigrum Leaf and Berries Extract Against Dengue Vector-Aedesaegypti" is awarded Best Article for Vol 10 issue 14 of IJCRR
A study by Asha Menon "Women in Child Care and Early Education: Truly Nontraditional Work" is awarded Best Article for Vol 10 issue 13
A study by Deep J. M. "Prevalence of Molar-Incisor Hypomineralization in 7-13 Years Old Children of Biratnagar, Nepal: A Cross Sectional Study" is awarded Best Article for Vol 10 issue 11 of IJCRR
A review by Chitra et al to analyse relation between Obesity and Type 2 diabetes is awarded 'Best Article' for Vol 10 issue 10 by IJCRR. 
A study by Karanpreet et al "Pregnancy Induced Hypertension: A Study on Its Multisystem Involvement" is given Best Paper Award for Vol 10 issue 09

List of Awardees

A Study by Ese Anibor et al. "Evaluation of Temporomandibular Joint Disorders Among Delta State University Students in Abraka, Nigeria" from Vol 13 issue 16 received Emerging Researcher Award


A Study by Alkhansa Mahmoud et al. entitled "mRNA Expression of Somatostatin Receptors (1-5) in MCF7 and MDA-MB231 Breast Cancer Cells" from Vol 13 issue 06 received Emerging Researcher Award


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Disclaimer: International Journal of Current Research and Review (IJCRR) provides platform for researchers to publish and discuss their original research and review work. IJCRR can not be held responsible for views, opinions and written statements of researchers published in this journal.



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International Journal of Current Research and Review (IJCRR) provides platform for researchers to publish and discuss their original research and review work. IJCRR can not be held responsible for views, opinions and written statements of researchers published in this journal

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